What Hedera's network is worth as a business, what the market is paying for the ticker on top of that, and where the price lands under three scenarios at 12 and 36 months. Move any slider and every number below recalculates.
1. Today
Every figure here was verified against a primary source on October 13, 2026 (hgraph mirror-node tables, DefiLlama APIs, Hedera mirror node, CoinMarketCap). They are the starting point for everything else.
Market
HBAR price$0.0876
Market cap$3.86B
Circulating supply44.0B HBAR
Unreleased (Council treasury)6.15B HBAR
Rank by market cap28
Canary HBR ETF net assets$72.0M
Usage
Transactions a month13.5M
Fees, last 12 months$292K
Average fee per transaction$0.0018
Monthly active accounts44,946
Stablecoins on Hedera$48.2M
DeFi value locked$34.8M
Behaviour (28 months to Sept 2026)
Beta to Bitcoin1.77
Beta, last 12 months0.86
Correlation with Bitcoin0.65
Annualized volatility119%
Annual alpha vs Bitcoin−14%
Staked HBAR12.97B
2. Usage lens: what the network earns
A network's fundamental value is its fee revenue times a multiple the market pays for similar networks. Hedera's multiple today is about 13,200 times fees, against 264 for Solana and 91 for Tron. The sliders set the multiple the market would pay once Hedera is valued like a business, and the two anchors (fees and stablecoins) are averaged into a single fundamental value.
Fee anchor
Tron 91 · Solana 264 · Sui/Avalanche about 1,400 · Hedera today 13,200
Fees needed for $0.0876 to be fully justified at this multiple: a year, or today's.
3. Investment lens: what the market pays for the ticker
Almost all of HBAR's price is a premium over fundamentals. The premium moves with Bitcoin (through beta), with ETF money, and with the narrative: council news, tokenized assets, lawsuits, treasury releases. Each scenario sets those drivers for 12 and 36 months; fees and stablecoins grow or shrink by the usage multipliers.
Long-run 1.77, last 12 months 0.86; default is between the two
Thin float and reflexive buying mean a dollar of ETF demand moves more than a dollar of cap; 5x is a middle estimate
Releases go to the Foundation and grantees first; 3.8B HBAR is forecast for Q4 2026, then about 265M a month until the 6.15B is gone
Scenarios
4. Results
Price = (fundamental value + narrative premium × (1 + beta × Bitcoin return) × (1 + narrative change) + ETF flow × multiplier) ÷ circulating supply after releases. Probabilities are editable in each scenario tab and must sum to 100.
Where the price comes from under each scenario: the fundamental part is what fees and stablecoins support at the chosen multiples; the premium is everything else.
Reference only: if HBAR did nothing but move randomly at its historical 119% annualized volatility with no drift, two thirds of outcomes would fall inside the band. Any scenario outside it is a strong claim.
5. What you have to believe
Annual fee revenue Hedera would need for each price to be fully supported by fundamentals at the fee multiple chosen above, with no narrative premium at all.
Method. The usage lens prices Hedera as a business; the investment lens prices the premium the market adds for the story, and the scenarios move both. The split is not a forecast of what the market will do but a way to see which part of the price is at risk from which event. Beta and volatility are from monthly closes May 2024 to September 2026 (Twelve Data). Fee multiples are from DefiLlama chain adapters and CoinMarketCap caps on October 13, 2026. All inputs are editable; defaults are the analyst's base case.